Whither the future -- Pedalecs as touring bikes

[Danneaux]

Hi All!

I'll step right out and make a bold (and likely foolish, as with most attempts to foretell the future) prediction:

I think remarkably soon, it will be difficult to get a non-powered bicycle. I think electronic aids will soon be ubiquitous on bicycles, whether in the form of Di2-like electronic shifting or in the form of assisted pedaling (pedalec). I think this is the Next Big Thing and Just Around the Corner. I think it will be Bigger than Index Shifting.

2012 was a disastrous year for European bike sales. The Euro's decline has meant less buying power in Asia, primary source for parts and frames for many of the brands sold on the Continent. At the same time, comsumers grew more wary of spending their hard-earned money on new bicycles if the old ones could limp along another year or two. The only market segment to show any real growth was the Pedelec, with greater refinement on OEM applications. Increasingly, it appears to me (Andre may well disagree, and he is better informed than I) hub motors are becoming the province of the retrofit and lower market price-points. The real future seems to be in BB-mounted assist units that keep the weight of the motor central and low to aid handling. The manufacturers have caught on to this, and Pedelecs of all stripes were a major feature of the most recent EuroBike show 29 August to 1 September of this year.

Like many people, I saw pedelecs as the almost exclusive province of the commuter and city/near-urban rider, given the limited range and need to recharge from a mains source of power.

That all changed with a recent effort from Bosch, who funded and supported a major self-supported tour of Mongolia on pedelecs that were recharged entirely by solar panels (a clever swiveling mount was used to maximize sun exposure of the solar cells). It really was a remarkable feat that is only now beginning to be appreciated for what it represents -- a shot squarely across the bow of solely human-powered touring and Expedition/Adventure touring.

Here are some relevant links detailing the effort:
http://www.bosch-ebike.de/media/ebike/dokumente/englisch/PI7864_Bosch_eBike_Systems_Pedelec_Adventures_E.pdf
http://www.tour-de-mongolia.com/
http://www.tour-de-mongolia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/pedelec-adventures.com_tour-de-mongolia_story_eurobike-show-daily-4_2012-08-31.pdf
http://mongoliaeconomy.blogspot.com/2012/08/mongolia-tour-puts-bosch-system-to-test.html
http://www.chinae-vehicle.com/index.php?c=news&a=view&id=492
http://www.bike-eu.com/Home/General/2012/8/Mongolia-Tour-Puts-Bosch-System-to-the-Test-1053881W/

I mean to take nothing away from the riders who did this. It was a hard, arduous task, and no small effort, thanks in part to the trailers needed to carry not only the necessary touring supplies, but also batteries and charging apparatus. It was a real expedtion, an incredible feat and they can take great pride in what I think will prove an historical accomplishment -- true, self-supported pedelec touring in an extremely remote area. The pedelec drivetrain just provided an assist. The bikes still included pedals and deraillerus and such, and required rider input to make forward progress.

Still...hypocritical as it sounds, I have mixed feelings about this. I suppose my attitude is similar to that of early Tour de France riders astride bikes with flip-flop hubs upon seeing early derailleur mechs. It seems almost like...well, not "cheating", exactly, but is an assisted effort equal to one that is solely human-powered? Is this the equivalent of "electric/electronic EPO"? Clearly, this is not competition where the playing field would be made unlevel, it is recreation and at a really demanding level. But would Shackleton's escape from an ice-bound Endurance have been as dramatic or heroic on snowmobiles instead of by sled-dog and -- finally -- sledges drawn by starving and depleted humans? Would the Iditarod be the same if it were mechanized? I used the word "hypocritical" at the start of this paragraph, and must admit it applies to myself. I use all sorts of mechanized aids to tour. For decades, it was the derailleur and triple cranks/touring blocks. Now, it is a Rohloff IGH, which is no small piece of engineering. Given that, why would I have any trouble with the idea of touring on a pedelec? Is it because it somehow seems less satisfying in a visceral Man (global use) Against Nature way? Does this go "too far" and mess with my idea of Adventure Touring as my own personal manifest destiny? I'm about 160 years too late to be an American sodbuster, a pioneer of the West, but I often think of them when I tour in the Great Basin and see and ride across the remains of their old steel-tired wagon ruts and past places with names that evoke the era. Do I really fear I'll go "soft" if touring adopts electric assist, or do I feel my efforts are threatened in some way? In truth, I have yet to figure it all out.

When I ran the Bosch story by several friends, they hastily dismissed it as a halfway effort, thanks to the battery assist, but I don't think that's entirely fair to the participants or the developers. When I showed it to friends less able to ride, they hailed it as a major milestone in terms of making touring accessible to all. Clearly, this will open touring to more people who could not otherwise engage in it at the same level as those without physical challenges. We'll all eventually get to the point where -- thanks to age, injury or disability -- electric assist looks pretty good compared to the alternative...especially if that alternative means a cessation of riding. What could be more wonderful and inclusive than sharing and opening and extending our joyful pursuit to others? Yet it is a double-edged sword; isn't there a danger this will become yet another shortcut for the able-bodied to avoid healthy exercise? In American society, obesity and related illness is a growing problem, and there are exhortations in print and electronic media to simply not sit the majority of time. Nevermind real exercise, the first goal is to get people to stand, leave the couch and television, and back away from the computer.

Too, in its evolution, the bicycle seems to be moving farther and farther from its most pure form; there is a reactionary backlash shown in the uptick in popularity of the Fixed Gear. Sometimes, I think it is the next logical step for former BMX riders who actually want to go somewhere. Other times, I think it embodies a genuine desire to re-embrace the bicycle in its seminal form. I have ridden Fixed and loved it; despite minimal overrides and concessions (maybe add a front brake?), there is no better way to feel intimately connected to this machine we love. If we project ahead and the bike becomes primarily electric...is it still a bicycle, or has it become a moped or even a small (electric) motorcycle, with pedals relegated to vestigial footrest duty?

I was amazed to see so many gas-powered scooters on bike paths in The Netherlands when I was there in 2008. I spoke of it to my friend's father, and he made the very good point that in a country that is bicycle-dependent, powered vehicles on the bike path are a fantastic way for older riders to stay in the mix. That might be, but why did the majority of scooter riders scorching through traffic with loud extractor/expansion chamber exhausts and governors removed seem to be in the supposedly fit, 16-24 year-old age cohort? I think there's something of the future in what I saw there in The Netherlands, and I wonder where we'll all be a decade from now. Will Thorn offer a touring pedelec with hub-motor assist and Rohloff? It's already a proven and very effective strategy for complete urban transport. If its siren call can wean even a few people from their cars, is that a bad thing? (I think not, given greater concerns about city/urban congestion and global warming).

So, what are your thoughts and responses to this little essay? Will all of us (except for true racers and those who wannabe) soon be riding a pedelec of one sort of another, or will true human power -- mechanically but not electronically assisted -- hold sway for the majority? Does it matter? Are we on the cusp of a sea change in what constitutes a bicycle, cycling, and touring? I'd love to hear your take on it all; thanks in advance for sharing your thoughts.

All the best,

Dan.

[triaesthete]

Hi Dan

I think the political and regulatory response to mass pedelec uptake will be interesting and depend on how they are marketed/developed. Do you think we dare hope for a development path that pursues low cost, efficiency, ergonomics and practicality or will we get speed, power, aggressive styling and diminishing practical function? Hey! the latter sounds like motorcycling....

The lack of a licence requirement may have interesting outcomes for drink and drug user uptake.

Brilliant for the elderly and infirm. I hope they get them sorted before I can't manage the hills

Solah Mongolia! Fantastic!

Keep up the good work Dan.
Ian

[Andre Jute]

Increasingly, it appears to me (Andre may well disagree, and he is better informed than I) hub motors are becoming the province of the retrofit and lower market price-points. The real future seems to be in BB-mounted assist units that keep the weight of the motor central and low to aid handling.

i think you're probably right, Dan: am better informed than you. But in this instance I agree with you, the future does lie with Bosch's central motor or, more particularly, with its chinese and Chinese copies, which have already started to appear. I looked into the Bosch version (expensive) and the Chinese version (awkward, probably in most hands a guaranteed installation failure) and decided to fit the proven hub version.

Bosch, incidentally, has considerable lithium battery expertise; their 36V electric tool battery pack is big with the early adopters in pedelecs, especially the serious commuters and the speed- and power-freaks in the States.

However, I don't think you're right about the Di2. The Dura-Ace version is a travesty, and the full-auto Di2, complete with electronically controlled active suspension, the so-called Cyber-Nexus "Smover" gruppo, already failed in the market not once but several times. (I have one of those too, and it was superb, and cheap for what it was, and still it failed in the hands of Gazelle and Trek, and that's an almost insuperable marketing history. This is it: http://coolmainpress.com/BICYCLINGsmover.html )

But I don't think your future pedelec will look like the bicycles we know, which are inspired by racing bikes. There is no reason for a pedelec to look like a racing bike, and in particular no reason for it to be so tall. Future bikes will probably have a crank forward geometry, like the geri-bikes I built a few years ago as an experiment, so that the rider can put his feet flat on the ground without leaving the saddle, and the saddle will curve up at the back, at the very least, or have a proper back like a recumbent, to press against for leverage. Wheelbases will be longer, wheels will be smaller, geometries will be lazier, tyres will be fatter and, I hope, slick (unless overtaken by fashion, as currently).

I doubt any manufacturers of pedelecs except a thin margin at the very top will see the slightest need of a Rohloff gearbox or indeed a gearbox even as extravagant as a Nexus 8-speed. Most will be content with 3 or 5 speed IGH. (My electric motor has now inculcated a sneaking tendency to ride in 14th gear rather than 11th, and fill in the holes with the thumb throttle. I have consciously to fight the tendency. It's amazing how far 9Ah, nominal, will carry you even in my hilly terrain. I storm even up the nasty hill for which I bought both the Rohlof and the electric motor in the higher gears, hardly ever going down below 8th gear.)

Would the Iditarod be the same if it were mechanized?

As it happens, I spent 13 years researching the Iditarod for my novel IDITAROD a novel of The Greatest Race on Earth, going every year, and ran a half-Iditarod, six hundred miles behind my sled and dogs. (I was younger then...) The book is at http://coolmainpress.com/iditarod1.html and here is a party I throw every year in March at Iditarod time to which I'll invite y'all next year: http://coolmainpress.com/iditarod1012011.html In the righthand column of the latter page is a link to a free map of the race, showing how close to the Arctic Circle it is run. Or go to http://www.facebook.com/pages/Iditarod-a-novel-of-The-Greatest-Race-on-Earth/193084334057961 and scroll down to  "Four time champion Jeff King,55, lies down in the snow to keep the wind off sick dogs" -- it's 50 degrees below freezing, with a thirty mile an hour wind, and the only shelter is his body. This is a race only for genuinely hard men — often won by even harder women.



Ally Zirkle, one of the hard women of the Iditord, leading the 2012 race; she finished second.

What most people don't grasp is that it isn't a musher (driver) race, or a sled race, it is a dog race. The very idea of mechanizing what makes the race unique is silly; the organizers would have to be stupid even to consider it, and they aren't. Anyway, they'd swing from lamp posts in Juneau and trees at points eastwards if they tried it; this is a race with a huge emotional commitment from participants and spectators alike.

[Danneaux]

A great post as always, Andre.

You wrote...

...I don't think your future pedelect will look like the bicycles we know, which are inspired by racing bikes. There is no reason for a pedelec to look like a racing bike, and in particular no reason for it to be so tall. Future bikes will probably have a crank forward geometry, like the geri-bikes I built a few years ago as an experiment, so that the rider can put his feet flat on the ground without leaving the saddle, and the saddle will curve up at the back, at the very least, or have a proper back like a recumbent, to press against for leverage. Wheelbases will be longer, wheels will be smaller, geometries will be lazier, tyres will be fatter and, I hope, slick (unless overtaken by fashion, as currently).

Hmm. That description sounds a lot like a 2006/2007 Giant Revive, Andre! (see attached photo):
http://www2.giant-bicycles.com/en-us/bikes/lifestyle/941/28459/?collections_id=2

All the best,

Dan.

[martinf]

Just back from a flat swap holiday to a small town in Zeeland, Netherlands. Wife and I explored the area on our exchange partners bikes.

They had a pedelec, but it was slightly too big for my wife, so she used their old sit-up-and-beg 3-speed. I was just able to get the saddle low enough for me to use the 65 cm frame man's bike. Both the bikes we used were considerably heavier than the ones we usually ride, but that didn't matter much as the area is completely flat apart from the short climbs for bridges and dykes.

Having already done an exchange to the suburbs of Amsterdam a few years ago we expected to see a lot of people on bikes. But this time we were amazed at the number of electric bikes. It seemed that about half the bikes we saw being used outside towns were electric-assist, and there were a lot of people cycling, most of them from the older sections of the population. Younger people would mostly have been at work or school.

Most of the electric bikes had front hub motors with an IGH hub on the back, often a Nexus 7 or 8. There were also a fair number with rear hub motors and derailleur gears, and a few with frame-mounted motors.

We also saw a couple of old bikes with very small petrol engines driving the rear wheel.

.

[Andre Jute]

You wrote...
Hmm. That description sounds a lot like a 2006/2007 Giant Revive, Andre! (see attached photo):
http://www2.giant-bicycles.com/en-us/bikes/lifestyle/941/28459/?collections_id=2

I had one of those briefly but wasn't convinced, and let it go to a man who offered me a good price beside the road. Sorry now.

An intermediate style that looks more like a bicycle is offered by the US light aircraft manufacturer RANS and has an enthusiastic following but I don't know how many bikes they sell, or whether they offer an electric version. http://rans.com/bicycles/crank-forward.html

Andre Jute

[Andybg]

I think that any development that reduces the size and weight of vehicles that people use for transport is a good thing whether this be from a road safety (for cyclists/ pedestrian), an enviromental view or even just to help clear the roads of traffic.

The fact that the bicycle is becoming a good base point for this vehicle due to its inherent strengths that we all love is a bit beside the point.

When out cycling my bicycle, I would see a person on a trike as more of a kindered spirit than somebody on an electric bicycle.

Having said that I think that an electric bicycle is a fantastic option, if the option is that or a car/bus.

I do think the one down side is that people who would have had to cycle (and thereby get some exercise) now have the option not to do that.


 

[JimK]

Electric bicycles are all over Manhattan. I think they're mostly used for delivery. Even up here in the countryside I am seeing more electric bikes. One fellow about our little village has a recumbent trike with the batteries in a trailer.

I read an article a while back that said in New York State electric bicycles are not actually legal on the road. More a matter of not specifically permitted rather than explicitly forbidden. That's got to get resolved before too many decades roll by!

There are over 100 million electric bikes in China. Lots of them are folding. Perfect for the big crowded cities!

How about solar kiosks sprinkled about the city? Could be a bike locker, so you can secure your bike and have it plugged in, too. Plus the locker would keep the power connection secure, too.

Yeah, electric bikes are so practical, that has to be big.

[JimK]

No one can charge me with being original!

http://www.ameribike.com/catalog/bike/solar/solar.html

[martinf]

I do think the one down side is that people who would have had to cycle (and thereby get some exercise) now have the option not to do that.

Nearly all the people I saw on electric bikes in Zeeland were pedalling, so just getting less exercise per km travelled. But if they end up going further or more often than they would have with an ordinary bike, their exercise balance will be positive.

And in some cases I think it enables people who would otherwise had to give up cycling entirely enough reassurance to continue despite physical problems.

I compare it with my own use of my Brompton - by folding and using public transport I get less exercise than I would if I cycled the whole distance. But on most of those trips I am replacing a bus ride, taxi or car trip, so overall I actually end up getting more exercise, as well as usually saving time and/or money.

[JimK]

overall I actually end up getting more exercise,

This paradox was first observed by Jeavons in the 19th Century, relating to coal. When coal-fired steam engines got more efficient, the use of coal actually increased - because the more efficient engines were economical for far more applications.

[Danneaux]

Hi All!

Shimano are now entering the fray with their integrated StePs component group: http://www.bikerumor.com/2013/11/18/shimano-steps-into-electric-bikes-in-europe-only-for-now/#more-69575

Pedelec tourers are coming, mark my word.

Hmm. Now we just have to feed power from our dynohubs range extenders into our Pedelec batteries and we're set (not).

Best,

Dan. (...who predicts no one will want a truly "manual" touring bike in a decade's time -- perhaps less)

[Andre Jute]

Going back to Dan's original thesis: Central motors are probably the wave of the future. My doctor recently warned me not to fall of my bike and break something, so for the first time this autumn I've noticed how slick the roads are and how much torque my "Baby BPM" motor actually disposes of, and that the front wheel isn't the ideal place for so much torque.

All the same, with so many millions of bikes already in service and available for electrification, I think that front and rear hub motors for conversions will be very big for years to come.

Thing is, Shimano has the manufacturing and OEM marketing clout to make almost any group set they want amazingly cheaply. The recommended price of several of top bikes from brands that took the Smover set (the full auto gearbox with electronic adaptive suspension) was amazingly low. My Trek Smover retailed under 1500 Euro, and Royal Dutch Gazelle's Saphir started at 1075, made possible by fabulous Shimano OEM deals for the group set.

So, if Shimano is trying to build a market, I'd expect the prices for bikes by the manufacturers included in Shimano's OEM pedelec program to be very attractive to start with, and soon to fall to stunningly cheap.

Whether I would buy into it myself, hmm, that's another matter. I already have better in my electrified Utopia Kranich with its Rohloff gearbox. And, perhaps more to the point, I have experience of how fast-wearing Shimano lightweight Nexus group sets that came with Nexus internal hubs could be. I'm not going back to that. If the STEPS bits are no better quality than the Nexus drivetrains, it will be a high maintenance setup, requiring at least a new chain every 1000 miles and a new chainring and sprocket at the same time or at most every 2000m.

So, the two most important questions here are, "What quality is the drivetrain?" and "How accessible is the chainring?" After we discover that, we can proceed to be impressed by the geewhizzery of it.

[John Saxby]

no one will want a truly "manual" touring bike in a decade's time

You may well be right, Dan, and no bad thing either.  I've seen quite a few e-bikes in Ottawa, and there are probably many more in places like Vancouver, Montréal and Tronna. A Guardian article earlier this year argued that the  real future of urban transport lay with the e-bike and not the e-car, citing the sale of 750,000 of these critters in Europe in 2012.  Some of us bitter-einders, of course, will not go gently into the good night (mixing our cross-cultural metaphors as we do so), continuing to insist on our quaint & archaic muscle-powered machines.  (Then again, in ten years' time--who knows? I might be glad of a boost on some of the steeper bits of the Canajan Shield.)

[il padrone]

My doctor recently warned me not to fall of my bike and break something, so for the first time this autumn I've noticed how slick the roads are and how much torque my "Baby BPM" motor actually disposes of, and that the front wheel isn't the ideal place for so much torque.

An answer for you - E-Mango