I've had good luck with the 1-watt LED blinkys, and have settled on two I am happy with:
1) PDW (Portland Design Works) 1-watt Radbot 1000:
http://www.sjscycles.co.uk/pdw-radbot-1000-1w-led-tail-light-prod24081/Mounts nicely on a rear rack, on a chainstay or seatpost, or unclips to go on clothing or a messenger bag. 3 modes: Steady or two flashes (slow and fast only; the zzz-POP option has sadly been discontinued). Includes an approved red reflector in addition to the LED. Generous side-visibility. Uses 2 AAA cells and requires a small screwdriver to open the battery door. This is the one I have mounted to a rack stay (my dynohub-powered B&M Toplight Line Plus is mounted to the center of the rack).
2) Blackburn 1-watt Mars 4.0:
http://www.sjscycles.co.uk/blackburn-blackburn-mars-40-rear-led-light-prod17935/Mounts similarly to the PDW and also has a secure clip for use on a bag. 2 modes: Steady or flash. No reflector. Good side-visibility and side-facing separate amber LEDs. Uses 2 AAA cells and requires only a coin to open the battery door. Really very small. This is the one I clip to the loop on the rear of my rack-top bag for long day rides in addition to the two above. It has served well by itself, though a separate reflector is required in that case. It has worked nicely for me on a number of 300-400km rides, including those in foul weather through the night.
Blackburn Mars 4.0 has the edge for waterproofness. Though I've never had a leak with the Radbot 1000, I think it is just possible water might be able to enter through the switch, though I haven't tested for that.
Each of these has proven to have good battery life for AAA-powered units, especially on the flashing settings. Each is bright enough to show nicely red on my neighbor's garage door across the street, and each makes me feel sick when I look directly into them.
When I ride at night, my rearview mirror often shows a red reflection behind me on trees and traffic signs. Each is also nicely daylight-visible, and I often use them when riding in heavy commuter traffic. Example here:
http://www.thorncycles.co.uk/forums/index.php?topic=3896.msg17272#msg17272