Like you -- and given the constraints of your crankset -- I'd try the 38x17 combo first.
Back in the days when I made my own extra-low derailleur gearing by using chainrings as cogs and cogs as chainrings with modified derailleur cages (and links in the case of quad-chaining setups), I got as low as 12.5 gear-inches. This was the practical minimum for me wrt maintaining balance, which is not a consideration for you with the trike.
What I did learn that might apply to your situation is this: It seems the human body perceives changes in gears logarithmically. By that, I mean larger jumps between gears at the low end are needed to "feel" like smaller jumps between higher gears. For this reason, I used to plot my gears on log paper to better visualize the jumps between and so have some idea how they would feel before I built them up (this was in the days before personal computers. I switched to homebrew gear calculators I wrote for mainframes as soon as I could gain access to one...).
The upshot of this is if you go for the 38x17 combo for a low of 12 gear-inches and find it isn't enough, then you will likely indeed have to take more drastic measures and fit something that allows you to go substantially lower for it to *feel* lower. Options at that point might include a different crankset that allows smaller chainrings than your present 130BCD (second-cheapest option to keeping what you have) or going the much more expensive route of a (in order of cost) Patterson drive, Hammerschmidt, or Schlumpf 2-sp internally geared *underdrive* crank/bottom bracket.
I recently served as a purchasing agent for a Bavarian friend who wanted a Patterson drive, so I had the chance to examine it closely and dry fit it. Compared to the Schlumpf drive, the Patterson does not require you to bevel/camfer the BB shell. It uses a standaRd front cable shifter of any sort, but is not as well sealed a the Schlumpf or Hammerschmidt -- a real consideration for use on mid with a conventional upright bike, but not so much with the elevated boom of a recumbent, which I presume you have. The torque reaction tabs work nicely with a conventional BB/chainsaw setup, but would need to be adapted to a recumbent boom
There are some low-gearing cautions I can offer well beyond Roloff's and they are very real, based on my own practical experience. Super-low gearing results in tremendous torque-induced loads on the drivetrain. For example, I found my freewheels would twist onto the hubs so tightly the hub shoulders would distort. To solve this problem, I made my own crushable aluminum thrust washers until I found a source for aluminum BB spacers, which are the same diameter as freewheel threads. These, along with molybdenum disulfide paste grease kept the hub shoulders intact and allowed me to remove the freewheels. Even so, I found continued use even in a well built wheel would pull the right side hub flange slightly ahead of the left due to torque through a then-standard small diameter hub center, worse with large flange hubs.
The next weak link in the chain is the chain -- super-low gearing makes it much easier for even a weaker rider to pull one apart in other than straight-chain gear combinations. Aluminum chairing teeth can distort, so steel becomes a better choice. If you have ramped dropouts, it is much harder to hold the wheel in place with a standard quick-release; a solid axle with nuts and serrated washer is a better choice. I found vertical dropouts were no real help, as at a certain point, the axle was pulled forward with so much force, the axle threads would emboss and slightly distort even a forged vertical dropout on the drive side if the axle became even a little loose
If you are hauling a lot of weight, if the hills are really steep, if you are a masher or a very strong rider, all thse forces are increased, usually beyond design limits.
Wear increases dramatically, partly due to the increased torque and partly due to smaller pinion diameters and increased rotations.
Mine were worst-case examples: 50kg all up bike/cargo loads + my weight on an upright bike going up >20% grades at 12.5 gear-inches. Though I have always been a spinner, at the time I was riding 19,000+km/year and a friend doing his doctorate in kinesiology measured me on his ergometer, where I could ever so briefly generate 0.32 peak horsepower.
Just some data points to consider, but I think you may well run into Roloff Trubbles if you go too low and add those other risk factors The key with the Roloff's limitations is not so much pure gear-inches as it is ratios. Before going to a 2-speed underdrive crankset, I would swap for a different conventional crankset that allowed smaller chainrings.
Hopefully helpful.
Best,
Dan.