Gates Drive

[energyman]

Oh, but I should have added, you could probably also run a Hebie Chainglider over a belt drive!

That misses one of the points of having a belt - if you put Herbie on it then no one can see you have a wondrous new belt driven bicycle. 

Mine gets muddy and has had snow packed round it and gets wet when it rains but still only needs a quick wash from a watering can and it's OK again.
(Anyone remember when cars went for a service and lots of things were done to them that no one would think of doing now on a modern car because the engineers have designed them out ?)

[mickeg]

At the price of a new belt, I am not very interested.  Even if the belt lasts a long time, still not interested.

I expect that derailleur bikes will continue to be the predominant type of bike out there.  Thus, I expect bike shops to stock plenty of chains and no belts unless that shop sells a IGH bike, then they probably would only stock one belt in the right size for that bike.  

And a lot of expendable bike parts are sold in hardware stores and discount stores that serve the lower cost bike market, I don't see that as a market for belt drives either.

Will we see more belts on bikes?  Yes.  But almost all the IGH bikes I see in my community are commuters that want lower maintenance.  These probably are the bikes where the belts will gain market share.  And I would expect only the larger shops that are set up to work on belt drive bikes with a competent mechanic would stock them.

Even if more Rohloff touring bikes are sold in the future with belts, that is a very small market.  I have only seen two Rohloff touring bikes, mine and one other that I saw last spring in a campground.  In my part of the world, derailleur touring bikes far outnumber IGH touring bikes.  And there are two kinds of bike tourists, those that have the skill to fix anything on their bike and do not mind spending a little quality time to do maintenance, and those that rely on others to do their maintenance.  I see this second group that pays others to do their maintenance as the ones that are more likely buyers of a belt driven bike, but it is my observation that this second group is a very small minority.

Those are my thoughts.  I am sure that some will disagree but we are all free to have our own opinions.

Everything I have seen on belts is based on longevity by a careful belt user.  But I wonder what the experience of the more typical user will be like when they gain market share?

[Slammin Sammy]

I agree Mike. I just can't see belts "sweeping the world". It's a tiny slice of the very small market that is IGH bikes anyway, so whilst it won't disappear, I can't see it growing much beyond where it is currently.

I'd be curious to know the proportions of belt-drives sold by makers who have belt variants of chain-drive bikes, such as Co-Motion, Van Nicholas, etc. I doubt they would ever share these figures, but I wonder if it gives Gates any encouragement?

[Wanlock Dod]

I thought I would just note that when I bought my first Rohloff I'm not sure if Thorn were selling bikes with them on, but it seems to be an important part of their business now. It's easy to see why they would want them to be tried and tested before they have them on their bikes, and to some extent Thorns are old school bikes for old school folks.

I have been surprised lately by the number of bikes available from some bike shops which have both hub gears and belt drives. It's definitely not huge, and they are all aimed at commuters (to whom I think they are ideally suited), but the choice compared to a couple of years ago is huge

The most common maintenance task that I carry out on my bike is to oil the chain, if I didn't have to do this then cumulatively I could save a lot of time. The Mercury seems to have a short throw EBB and I can't help but wonder if this system might be better suited to belt drives with less tendency to stretch than a chain. The problem of breaking the frame surely isn't that great, as Thorn are happy to supply bikes with S&S couplings, although it's possible that a suitable coupling for the seat stay isn't readily available yet.

If I were looking for a new bike then belt drive compatibility would probably be a nice thing to have, but I'm not sure that it would be important enough to prevent me from buying another Thorn.

[energyman]

Sorry to labour the point but yesterday my other half & myself plus about 25 other cyclists were being shown round the newly set up trails in a local wood.  After an hour of cycling I think I was one of the few who didn't have problems with clag in the gears and chain.
Today I spent a couple of hours cleaning and re-lubricating the other half's derailleur and chain whilst mine with the belt and hub gears just needed a quick wash down with the watering can.
(The only other person who didn't have a problem was on a skinny, smooth tyred, totally unsuitable for that terrain, road bike which didn't pick up the mud, grit and pine needle clag.)

[Slammin Sammy]

I thought I would follow up my recent (and in hindsight, rather dismissive  ) remarks to say that I am trying to get a closer look at a belt drive bike - in this case, a Bike Friday Infinity Drive Silk. It's paired up with a Nuvinci hub (or you can buy the Silk with an 8 speed Alfine).

As you can imagine, they're not very common here in Oz. 

BTW - Anyone heard whether Thorn's ready to release that Rohloff/Gates folder Andy's been working on? (Oops! Sorry, I should've kept the cat in the bag...  )