Older thread, ongoing problem, so...
Here's what I do:
My front pannier loads are stable; they contain everything I need for just about every trip except food, water, and my sleep system -- they contain my tools, cookset and stove, fuel, clothing, spare batteries, toilet kit, etc.
My handlebar bag load is stable; it contains my nibble-food, camera, phone, knife, mp3 player, camera, money, documents, batteries being charged by the TT ThePlug2, wind jacket, and hat.
My rear pannier side pockets contain my toilet paper in the form of tissue packets; rain gear, first aid kit, and spare shoes reside in dry sacks under the lid-caps of my rear Ortlieb Bike Packer panniers. That load is stable as well.
All dynamic load adjustments made with the rear pannier contents and arrangement of the rack-top load.
The rear panniers' main compartments are devoted almost entirely to foodstuffs, which vary enormously in volume and weight depending on the duration of my tour. They have their own lateral compression straps that allow the bags to accommodate different-sized loads. I use a secondary vertical load-compression strap to tie the bags to the rack and prevent any rattling or movement.
For a
minimal tour (an overnighter or a week or two; certainly anytime where I can count on regular food and water resupply) in the cold shoulder-seasons, my -17C down bag goes inside the rear panniers, balanced on the other side by the inflatable foam pad, each sharing space with my meager food stores. In this scenario, my water is stored in the 6.5 liters' worth of bottles mounted in cages to the frame and steerer of my Sherpa. Only the 1-person tent and my closed-cell foam sit-pad go atop the rear rack.
For a more
normal tour (1-2+ weeks, irregular food and water resupply), the sleeping bag, silk liner, air pillow, and foam pad go into a 35l Outdoor Research Durable Dry-sack (
http://www.outdoorresearch.com/en/durable-dry-sack-5l.html ) crosswise across the rear rack, joined by the tent, also crosswise in its own stuffsack. They ride atop the closed-cell foam sit-pad and the empty 10l MSR Dromedary water sack, all on the rack deck (the 10l water bag in this scenario is intended only to provide an in-camp water supply; it remains empty during the day) . This is possible because with this kind of load, the panniers are partly empty and so the cap-lids and their contents ride level with the rack-top.
An
expeditionary tour load (intended for multi-day unsupported tours in remote areas away from food and water resupply) is like the normal one, except the tent goes lengthwise along the rack, atop the sit-pad and the 10l MSR Dromedary filled with 6 liters of water (giving 12.5l total on-board capacity with 4l more in reserve if needed for the last short slog to a dry wild-camp in the deserts where I tour). The dry sack with the sleeping bag, pad, liner and pillow goes crosswise atop it all, since the full cap-lids ride above the rack, level with the tent sack, forming a level surface. The dry sack with the sleeping gear is held lengthwise by the two Arno straps and crosswise by the compression straps I always use to stabilize the panniers to the rack and prevent second-order vibrations.
Each of these load scenarios is stable while riding, and there's no wiggle-woggle to deal with. I just adjust the load as needed for the amount of stuff I carry, and can change mid-tour using the same straps. One reason to do so is after a mid-tour food resupply, where I might not have time to break-down packaging or carefully store everything efficiently. Then, it is just a matter of throwing everything in the rear bags and rearranging the top load and I'm off. The tent
always stays outside atop the rack so it won't wet other things. The pad and down sleeping bag
always go inside either the rear Ortliebs or inside the OR dry sack, since they must stay dry.
Since the front load remains stable, so does the tire pressure for that tire. The rear load is what changes, so I adjust tire pressure accordingly at that end.
Pics below show each load scheme from the side and rear.
Hope this helps; there's a million ways to do it, but these are the methods I've settled on after many years and they work well for me.
Best,
Dan.