How safe is safe on your bicycle: what sort of differential is worth mentioning?

[Andre Jute]

We don't generally waste a lot of time on this forum whining about how dangerous cycling is, because most of us know that for experienced and sensible cyclists the risk is not huge. Here's some confirmation, and enough information to let us get a statistical handle on what is meaningful and what isn't.

An American cyclist's chances of being injured while riding a bicycle in 1999-2003 has been measured as 1 in 68,400 journeys, and of being killed 1 in 4,761,904 journeys. (All other calculations are based on the same sample/time/reports cited below. Present tense because these are the best figures to be found, and likely to be directly applicable to our own period.)

A person's chances of being injured in a car are 1 in 124,533 journeys, and of being killed 1 in 10,869,565journeys.

Thus a car is twice as safe as a bicycle, or a bicycle is twice as dangerous as a car. Gee.

For perspective, let's say you commute to work five days a week and on both your days off take two journeys as well, 14 journeys a week. Then, if your fortune is precisely, randomly, average, you could ride for 93 years before suffering an injury.

Clearly, in such low risk  activities as cycling or motoring, a differential risk factor of 2 isn't worth considering.

However, if the differential risk of being hurt on your bike was ten times that of getting hurt in a car, 124,533/10 or 1 in 12,453 journeys, then the average commuting/recreation rider would stand a chance of being hurt once every 17 years. Being hurt two or three times in a 50 year cycling career, while still a relatively low risk, is probably a consideration for most people..

So, for such comparatively very low risk activities as cycling, a difference of double the risk is just about negligible. What you need before the differential can be considered rationally is a differential of around a magnitude. Or higher.

Statistically, it isn't worth discussing the comparative risk of dying on your bike; nobody grows that old. However, there is a gathering perception in the cycling community that such statistical manipulations fail to meet the common perception that, statistically, none of us should know any cyclists who have been killed on a bike, yet in real life all of us know one or more or several cyclists dead on the roads.

***
Source material:
http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/166/2/212/T3.expansion.html
http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/166/2/212/T3.expansion.html

[JimK]

Right now I can't think of anybody I knew personally who died biking. The closest was back around 1986 or so, a guy I'd been in a programming class with. I encountered him on the street and noticed he was moving real slow. He'd been training to race and was hauling down a hill when an oil truck pulled out of a driveway. He broke many bones, punctured just about everything. Months in the hospital and probably years before getting back his old vigor. At the time he had no plan or desire to get back on a bike!

One of the managers in the group I worked with back then was a downhill skier. Catskills skiing is notoriously icy. He was a good skier but ended up sliding fast into a snow making machine. Maybe not quite as messed up as my bicycling friend but I did get to watch his recovery over the years.

One big challenge in my new living situation is a nasty intersection - really two intersections side by side. NY 28 crosses US 209 with a full cloverleaf. Then there is a big traffic circle / roundabout where there is a I-87 toll road exit meeting US 28 and a couple other roads. The traffic circle has two lanes going around which is grand fun, and also some bypass auxiliary bits that let you take an immediate right without entering the circle proper. There is one bike path that lets a person skip the circle.... going into Kingston it works well enough but coming back west it starts and stops on the wrong side of the road so yuck it is 4 lanes of busy traffic to cross at the start and another 4 at the stop.

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=12401&hl=en&ll=41.946165,-74.03178&spn=0.012417,0.021865&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=6.276362,11.195068&hnear=Kingston,+New+York+12401&t=h&z=16

I can do some very nice biking without confronting this nightmare, but on the other hand there is a lot of pleasant and/or practical biking that pretty much requires getting through all that. Groceries are about three miles from the apartment, right through there. I think I will probably walk there a lot. Good osteoporosis prevention! There is a run-down motel near the apartment and quite a few people walk into town from there, so there is actually a surprising amount of pedestrian traffic for such an unaccommodating bit of civil engineering. Given that it is one of the primary thruway exits providing access to the Catskills, there is a lot of out of town traffic. The whole mess is actually mildly challenging just as an automobile driver. I try to keep that in mind on my bike - I am dealing with bewildered drivers out there!

That's the thing about any sort of statistics. If you draw the boundaries big enough to make the numbers statistically significant, then you'll have combined such wildly differing populations that it's not very meaningful. But if you narrow the field by incorporating more than the barest few crucial details (day vs. night, blood alcohol level, ...) then the data becomes too fractured to retain significance!

Yeah, ride safe out there! I'm leaving my front and rear lights switched on for the winter season!

[mickeg]

Cycling on a very windy day.  Sudden loud snapping sound.  Suddenly there is a tree down crossing the trail in front of me less than 10 meters away.  Was doing maybe 25 kph, could not stop in time.  Ran right into it on my Sherpa and went flying over it.  That was May 2012.  Shoulder surgery in Feb 2013.  Now in Dec 2013, shoulder still hurts and and does not function very well, but the surgery restored the range of movement.  To give you an idea of the impact, the stem of the Sherpa was twisted around on the steerer tube, had to get out my multitool to loosen the bolts to straighten it.  I was amazed that there was no other damage to the bike, I expected a dent in the top tube from a bar end shifter (in the ends of my drop bars) hitting it to twist the stem around, but could not find a scratch to the bike.  I have done two tours since on that bike, still amazed that it is just fine.

A friend of mine while biking in continental Europe last summer had her front tire slip into the groove between a railroad rail and the adjacent pavement.  She fell to one side.  She did not know her arm was broken until she got home (in USA) and got an x ray.  I saw her a couple weeks ago, she can not raise her elbow above her shoulder.  I suggested she just get the surgery to get it fixed instead of waiting to see if it gets better.

[in4]

I took a tumble a few years ago. My bike slipped from under me as I rode across a sidewalk/pavement that had moss on it.It happened so quickly and I was unable to cushion my fall. Left me with a dodgy elbow joint that was only cured much later, much later when I picked up my much loved but now departed labrador, Henry; something 'clicked'  back into place. My hip joint took the full brunt of my fall and it continues to ache to this day. I'm not sure there was much I could do to prevent this accident save to say that being  careful riding over moss-covered pavements might be a good idea. Also, I was using Schwalbe Hurricanes. I'd never had any trouble with them before and regarded them as a reasonable all-rounder. I wonder whether anyone one else has had fun on Hurricanes?

[Danneaux]

No point going into great detail, but I have survived three outright helmet-breakings, a concerted murder attempt and a number of spills that "should", by all rights, have killed me and certainly inflicted damage that required time and medical intervention to heal. None would have happened if I had not been riding a bicycle at the time. Most were accidental, a couple deliberate acts by others.

Despite all this, I still ride.

I have been in a car accident that had me in physiotherapy and limping and leaning on a cane through my entire senior year of high school.

I still drive.

I have had some severe health problems in the past that cost me dearly, once resulting in a fatal prognosis.

I'm still here.

What was it singer/songwriter Warren Zevon said? "Life'll Kill Ya". 'S'truth! Clawfinger said it too and Jim Morrison, in his way. Hmm. Three such diverse musicians can't be wrong and two of the three are Gone.

All the best,

Dan. (...who wishes safe journeys to all)

[moodymac]

Andre,

Hat is off for you friend.  I could not make heads or tails from the charts.  I wonder if they included bike accidents caused by sporting (ie BMX events etc.)?  That would skew things a bit for the others.


Dan,

Talk about the life of Job!  Be careful!  Stay away from high voltage electricity, lightning, fire, that rocket fuel you have, ladders, etc.  Wear that beanie hat you have (the one with the propeller), attach a ring of Christmas lights around it and never remove it for any reason.  And please post photos.

Seriously though, some people go though all kinds of crazy things, while the others never have so much as a hang nail.  You may be of the first group.  Be watchful, don't want to lose our Dan, even for a day or two.


Tom 

[jags]

http://www.fellclub.org.uk/reports/Anthony's%20tour.htm

the reason i put my france link up is because it was the worst time i've ever felt on a bike .
a carless moment by a friend wrecked my head big time.

jags.

[Andre Jute]

Hat is off for you friend.  I could not make heads or tails from the charts.  I wonder if they included bike accidents caused by sporting (ie BMX events etc.)?  That would skew things a bit for the others.

Those figures definitely include sporting riding, not just on-road riding. That's not all such global numbers hide, though. One of the most striking things in the charts is that a man is twice as likely to die on a car journey as a woman, and four times as likely on a bicycle journey. Perhaps we should get Jawine to tell us how she rides. Very likely those numbers tell us that women are more cautious, more skeptical about risk compensation, less reckless, more law-abiding, ride more predictably, etc.

Interpreting such tables is easy only for the foolish and the inexperienced, Tom; statistical analysis is much more of an art than its practitioners are willing to admit to outsiders. These particular numbers are solid though (because they are based on such a huge sample), and their main message is that cycling is, for practical purposes, as safe as any other common locomotional activity, bar riding public transport, which is much, much safer, and riding a motorcycle, which is much, much more dangerous.

[Andre Jute]

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=12401&hl=en&ll=41.946165,-74.03178&spn=0.012417,0.021865&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=6.276362,11.195068&hnear=Kingston,+New+York+12401&t=h&z=16
t there! I'm leaving my front and rear lights switched on for the winter season!

If I had to ride there, I'd move. T-junctions are already stressful enough, and the simple, small roundabout at the exit to my village is already worth avoiding to most of my pedal pals, all of whom cycle for recreation rather than to get anywhere. Outside the rush hour I ride through the roundabout, because it is the fastest road to the most common meeting place when we ride that side of town, but I always take the lane so that nobody can pass until I'm out of the roundabout again. I don't imagine it would be so easy to take the lane on Jim spaghetti.

[JimK]

bicycling is, for practical purposes, as safe as any other common locomotional activity

I met a lady once who was an aviation lawyer or some such. Her emphatic advice: never ride in a helicopter!

[JimK]

If I had to ride there, I'd move.
...
 I don't imagine it would be so easy to take the lane on Jim spaghetti.

Maybe we'll be (t)here three years, we'll see. We want to see what direction her son takes and what kind of support he'll need.

Uh, taking the lane??? Suicide! The big puzzle: at a cloverleaf, with us driving on the right side of the road, one encounters 1) exit for right turn, 2) entrance for folks turning left, 3) exit for left turn, 4) entrance for folks turning right. The real mess is the interval between 2 and 3. The entrance lane becomes the exit lane. Folks are doing this crazy criss-cross as those entering merge left and those exiting merge right. Theoretically as a bicyclist I can just stay on the right side of the through lane and ride directly through the interchange. So far that is what I have done, the few times I have ridden through there. The other alternative is to play it more like a pedestrian - right at entrance 2 to jump over to the shoulder on the far right, then at exit 3 jump back over to the shoulder of the main road. That keeps me out of the crazy criss-cross traffic, but it has me crossing the lane at the entrance and then recrossing at the exit.

My idea at the moment is to ride straight through if there is low traffic, so drivers have nobody else to look at besides me. If there are are cars dancing with each other, then I will go like a pedestrian and cross the lane to stay on the shoulder, and just wait for nice big holes in traffic before crossing. Visibility is good and traffic is almost never so crazy that there are no holes.

[JimK]

Some discussion on navigating cloverleafs: http://forums.roadbikereview.com/commuting-touring-ride-reports/negotiating-cloverleaf-interchange-7980.html

I know that Ryders Lane / Route 1 intersection quite well. Route 1 through NJ is a total nightmare! These folks have it far far worse than I do!

http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php/916957-need-some-advice-on-tactics-for-a-specific-situation-freeway-interchange

I need to meet these folks: http://www.dailyfreeman.com/general-news/20130828/bike-friendly-kingston-is-groups-name-and-goal

[Danneaux]

Poor Jim, truly; do be careful!

Cloverleafs are terrible. Also bad are roundabouts.

'Merkins in my area don't seem to "get" roundabouts/traffic circles as they do in Europe. They don't know the meaning of the lane-painted "shark teeth" that remind entering drivers to yield to traffic in the circle, and the result is utter chaos. Most telling are the skid marks and chipped curbs that come from drivers who decide to go *straight through*, which sometimes means also taking out the landscaping, water features, Art or other "traffic furniture" in the middle.  

A couple of ours have double lanes, and the outside lanes can dive off on their own...right across crosswalks and those hapless souls brave or foolish enough to use them.

The statistically "most dangerous" intersection(s) in my town are directly north of me and I have to pass through them on my way to the open fields of the Willamette Valley. As Jim sagely observed, some of our roads are poorly arranged and feed traffic in criss-cross patterns, and some where drivers can optionally make right turns from a middle lane -- where I can't see them and they cannot see me. Add bus bays to the mix and things get busier. I've been riding well out of my way to get north more safely, but there is no alternative returning southbound, usually at dusk or dark. Yikes. The bike lanes disappear at times, dumping one into the traffic mix with nowhere to go.

For a photo taken with minimal traffic, go here and waitasec' or select Street View, then play with traveling north: (Preview) http://preview.tinyurl.com/nhazdbo (Direct) http://tinyurl.com/nhazdbo Big problem comes when crossing Silver Ln/River Ave and again under the freeway 'cos it is common for a half-dozen cars to run the red traffic light at each intersection. Green means go, yellow means go fast! and red means I'm going anyway 'cos I'm too busy/important to wait.

I think the bigger problem here is drivers. If everyone did what they were supposed to, I really don't think the intersections would be so bad. As it is, I seem to have the superpower of invisibility for right-turning drivers (remember, we drive on the right); they are allowed to turn right on red after stopping. This means they look left for oncoming traffic as they turn right, and don't see cyclists in the on-street bike lane. Kahlump-kahlump is the sad result. I've taken to stopping 4-5 cars back at traffic lights so I can catch the eyes of drivers also waiting, then hope they'll remember I'm there as we both accelerate more slowly after the light changes.

Scary, scary stuff, and someone with knees for bumpers is going to come out of things badly if it all goes wrong.

Best,

Dan.

[triaesthete]

Right about the motorcycling Andre, toll for those near me is: 1 relative, 2 boys at my school, 3 colleagues, 1 neighbour, 1 clubmate, 2 customers  and several friends of friends plus numerous serious hospitalisations etc. I'm obviously luckier than Danneaux  

Bicycling is a much more human scaled endeavour and only really gets dangerous when other (badly driven) vehicles involved. Toll here: one friend and mentor killed by caravan and one friend run over but not killed by trailer wheels on an articulated truck.

Depression is much more dangerous than cycling in my experience . Toll; 3 acquaintances.  Never mind smoking and military service.....

No ladies amongst ANY of the above though, and any statistician here will tell us that anecdotal evidence is meaningless.

Mind you a good number of car fatalities are from head injury and a few from seatbelt decapitation.

Be careful out there (but not worried, you have more chance of winning the lottery)

Ian

[JimK]

Gets me thinking about one of my closest calls, at this intersection in Oregon:

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=NW+john+olsen+%26+Evergreen,+Hillsboro,+OR&hl=en&ll=45.543562,-122.881587&spn=0.002923,0.005466&sll=45.541743,-122.880621&sspn=0.005846,0.010933&t=h&hnear=NW+Evergreen+Pkwy+%26+NW+John+Olsen+Ave,+Hillsboro,+Washington+County,+Oregon+97124&z=18

In those days there was no traffic light there. Evergreen Parkway goes east-west and is quite busy and high speed. John Olsen Ave is low traffic. Folks will come west on Evergreen looking to make a left onto John Olsen. They're focused on on-coming traffic. If it's clear, they'll gun it and fly across to get onto John Olsen. Thing is, John Olsen is quite wide, 2 lanes in each direction oh yeah and a left turn lane in the middle. I was crossing the intersection on foot, headed east. I am in the middle of the second lane or so, and this car comes racing down Evergreen and peels into a left turn, straight at me. By the time they start looking where they're going we're already mighty close. I start running to get out of the way, but they start turning the way I am going, a classic "after you" metastable sort of decision failure. I ran fast enough to live to tell, but with less than a foot to spare. I just sat down on the far curb to get make sure I was still alive. The driver actually stopped 50 feet down the road or so and rolled down their window and waved a sort of apology. I think it took them a minute too to regain composure.

They did put in a stoplight with walk signals and left turn arrows, maybe 6 months later.

A block south, John Olsen & Cornell - on my daily commute which was walking or biking - once there were roses taped to the light pole. Some high school student had been killed there. The bus stopped on the far side of the road so that intersection saw a lot of pedestrian traffic. In one direction there was a rise in the road so you couldn't see the traffic until it was practically on top of you. There was always a light there. As a driver you'd come up over the rise and have to stop rather abruptly if the light was red. But the traffic light being up high and bright, and most folks would know to expect it, so people didn't run reds. Smart pedestrians wouldn't, either! But unfortunately somebody had to learn the hard way.