Also a quote from Thorn bible on gearing ...
“ We like to send our bikes out with a 17t , or even better a 19t sprocket - because the chain will last longer than if you use a 16t sprocket and much longer than if you choose a 15t sprocket! “
45 x 19 is recommended
50 x 21 with the 21T KMC wide sprocket (more teeth AND more width) combined with the KMC e101EPT chain should theoretically be even better, and still give the same gearing as 38 x16.
But it might be difficult to source a 50T chainring in the wide 1/8" width. The ones I have are unused track rings that fit the (very old) TA Cyclotouriste 5-pin crank design.
Using all KMC 10,000km+ components the combination with their largest chainring size closest to 38 x 16 would be 42 x18.
As JohnR says, you should start by working out what gearing you want.
My own take for a loaded tourer is to decide the biggest gear I
really need (i.e. I do without a really big gear for downhills and strong tail winds) and put that as the highest gear, taking account of the limitations of available sprockets/chainrings, and (in my case) Chainglider compatibility.
In 2011-2012 (might be a bit lower now with advancing age) that was a top gear of about 80", which corresponds roughly to 38 x 17. At the time, this was less than the smallest recommended ratio for Rohloff, so I chose 38 x 16 in order to comply with the guarantee conditions. Rohloff have since changed their smallest recommended ratio to 1.9, so 38 x 17 is now OK and even lower ratios are possible.
With 38 x 16, I hardly ever use the highest gear of 88", but the lowest gear of 17" is very welcome on steep climbs at the end of a long day with a touring load and I could sometimes use even lower.