Your prognostications for Future Adventure Cycling, Bikes, Components

[Danneaux]

Hi All,

Manufacturers have introduced a number of new products at this year's Cologne Bicycle Show.  Among them, Shimano have announced 2012 will see the introduction of a Deore group with 10-cog cassettes instead of nine.  Campagnolo seems to be moving ahead with electrically-actuated shifting, as is Shimano on some of their racing-oriented lines.  Tout Terrain have further refined their "Plug" series of USB charging ports for dynohubs, and so forth.

The past decade (or more!) has seen a steady refinement of bicycle components brought to market, and some genuinely new twists (though some were introduced decades ago and beautifully illustrated by Daniel Rebour). Among these are the threadless headset and external-bearing bottom bracket, which -- together with pinch-bolt cranks and large-diameter, captive BB spindles -- have made life easier for touring cyclists, who can now perform needed service with only a 5mm allen key.  Perhaps one of the greatest refinements for adventure cyclists is the Rohloff hub.  It surely has made a positive difference in cycling pleasure for many, both through ease of use and greatly reduced maintenance as well as increased reliability and reduced overall costs, despite the huge initial outlay.  Disk brakes (both mechanical and hydraulically-actuated) are now in widespread, popular use as well, but were entirely absent from the market 30 years ago.  Same for carbon-fiber frames and even aluminum and titanium, 40 years ago.

So...

Given these trends, use your crystal ball and tell us where you think bicycles and their components will be heading in the years to come.  Historically, racing has been a driving factor in weight reduction and product refinement and innovation.  Years ago, French reliability trials did something similar among French tourists.  Where and how will future innovations help or hurt the casual or club cyclist, the randonneur or audax rider, the tourist or globe-trotting adventure rider?

How complicated should bicycles become?  Will electrically-actuated gears ever be appropriate for back-of-beyond cyclists, or are cables and housings the most appropriate technology for such use?  Will the chain survive as a way to transmit power, or are we headed toward widespread acceptance of toothed belts?  Will we ever see a practical "plastic" heavy-touring frame?  Keep in mind, it would not be a huge trick to integrate racks and even panniers with proper molding and forming techniques, and wiring runs could someday amount to printed circuits laid as part of a composite frame material, with super-capacitors integrated as part of the design to give "standlight" capability to a number of gadgets.  I've always wondered how the hollow space in frame tubing could be put to better use; what a great place to carry...something!  Will we be seeing greater adoption of suspension designs for cycle-tourists?  Will tires still be rubber-based or go more to plastics and fillers?  I saw mention of a design for a self-inflating bicycle tire the other day; why not?

Let's hear it -- where are we going, is it appropriate, and what will/would you like to see?  Please specify whether you're predicting the future of cycling in general, or by genre (i.e. touring, audax, casual, racing, etc.) or component design.  A prediction free-for-all!

Best,

Dan.

[Andybg]

A very interesting topic and one that I think is on the verge of becoming reality. The use of the rohloff hub on many recent expeditions proves that technology can be accepted over simplicity if the relibility is there.

A similar debate to this happened in the land rover community about 10 years ago with the launch of new electronic engine control and driver aids. Would these, could these ever be considered for expedition use in parts of the world where there is no suitable support.

The answer has been mixed. For those willing to invest in new vechicles then they can be supremely reliable and definetly more capable than their low tech bretheren. The problem becomes as these vehicles become older (now around the 10 year mark) where they are affordable to the average joe in the street to use for an expedition they are begining to develop reliability issues long before the technology is supported in that region.

Personaly I do not believe that the touring cycle market will ever become big enough to drive development or warrant the investment required for some of this new technology (currently available) to be adapted or used whithin this sector.

[Andybg]

However I do see that utility cycling will grow and grow as a true alternative to cars and public transport. In respect to comfort, reliabilty and load lugging the requirements of both are similar and the potential market size is much bigger.

[JimK]

What intrigues me is the convergence of touring and utility cycling.

I am not very fond of going someplace just to see the sights. I like to have some kind of project at a place, some way to get involved in the culture there.

For example, I love the music of Kyrgyzstan. Check out the beautiful singing of Salamat Sadikova! If I ride for a month or two to attend a festival of Kyrgyz music, is that a tour or is that utility cycling?

[Andybg]

I think that all touring is utility. You are using the bicycle to get from one place to another. The whole point in the tour is to get from one place to another and the bicycle is the thing you are using to do it. The opposite of my Thorn touring bike is my track bike that sits in my gym on a turbo. It can carry nothing and it goes nowhere.

I think touring sounds much more romantic than utility but I would bet that most people who buy a Thorn end up using it more for utility than touring.

I spent years and years on racing bikes and although I still love to ride I like to ride for a reason - I need to go into town and I am taking my bike rather than I am "just" going out for a ride for the sake of the ride.

I get great satisfaction out of doing something on my bike that I would otherwise use the car for.

[Danneaux]

Andy, Jim --

Great points about the increasing convergence of utility and touring cycling.  Just look at the number of riders now touring on ExtraCycle-style utility bikes.  That was unheard of just a few years ago, and now they are out in the field, though still uncommon due to greater weight and longer wheelbase limiting ground clearance and air transport on transit legs.  Trailers are now a well-established means for carrying cargo; look at the ExtraWheel and BOB offerings.  Now, I am noticing an increase in electrical power-assist for utility bikes (sometimes referred to as Pedalecs).  Might a future tourist actually plug-in at a night's lodging, then save that electrical power for a welcome boost during the next day's climb?  I can think of a time or two when I wished for a little extra help to magically appear halfway up a 14% grade.  Go with lightweight Lithium-polymer batteries and it begins to seem more viable to lug batteries when they aren't needed or between charging opportunities.  

Great point about the Land Rovers and aging/serviceable technology, Andy.  When I worked on cars for money, I specialized in engine-management systems.  The achilles heel of aging electronic-heavy vehicles was ground-faults due to corrosion of terminal connections.  With no proper ground-return, electronic sensors would often go awry and cause all sorts of drivability issues.  It got better with the advent of OBD-II and scanners, but ground-isolation is still a major issue in engine management as electronics age in dirty, overheated, wet, high-vibration environments similar to what an adventure cycle-tourist might encounter.  The electrical terminals may be well sealed, but when a sensor grounds through its case, bolts corrode.  Any cyclist with a single-wire bottle-generator can relate.

With regard to adventure cyclists, there comes a question of appropriate technology.  Isolated from a ready source of replacement parts or the technology that allows service, simple, field-serviceable parts are more attractive, particularly if one also has to lug the tools to fix them, or has to beg them from a nearby farmhouse.  Large clearances and fault-tolerant low-tech parts are easier to sustain and are more reliable, albeit cruder and often heavier.

Best,

Dan.