Thorn Cycles Forum
Community => Muppets Threads! (And Anything Else) => Topic started by: Danneaux on January 22, 2015, 06:59:00 PM
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Hi All!
Yikes! A whole lotta shakin' is going on in my preferred bicycle touring playground, Oregon/Nevada/California's portion of the Great Basin: http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/01/8_earthquakes_in_24_hours_ratt.html
Oregon and the Cascades mountain range are seismically active places, as is the Cascadia subduction zone ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone ) offshore, which always offers the threat of a major tsunami.
Yes, I may own beachfront property sooner than expected. :o ...or will be using my tent on a more permanent basis. :D
Best,
Dan.
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Sorry about that Dan, I opened my wallet! ;)
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;D
All the best,
Dan.
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Wow beach front property Dan! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ;D
Andy
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Wow beach front property Dan! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Grin
Aw, a mixed bag, Andy. The little vacation cabin at Yachats is a block and a half from the beach now, and I can see the water if I stand on the curb. If the Big One comes, then it will go and my new beach home will be my residence here in Eugene, a good 100km directly in from Florence on the Coast.
A of us here are sort of waiting for the inevitable with breath indrawn. The Cascades are all dormant volcanoes with current measurable seismic activity. I was touring the San Juan Islands off the Washington State coast when Mt. St. Helens blew (Boy! Do I have some stories from that trip...!), and we got a healthy coating of ashfall here in Eugene to the South.
There's some thought that a quiet time occurs -- such as the one following this swam near Lakeside -- then all may let loose in one big lurch that goes from the Pacific to the Cascades as built-up pressure is relieved all at once. No one here is prepared for that, and the loss of infrastructure would be enormous, likely crippling the entire northwest for decades.
I'm a bit torn as to where I'd most like to be "when" (predictions say it is no longer "if") it happens. I think in the desert would be best, rather than climbing through the forest to get there, or down here in the Valley where the dams are not rated to withstand local quakes.
All the best,
Dan. (...who is now singing Jimmy Buffet's "Volcano" song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Aoxk6-rInE )
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I had know idea that part of the west coast of US was so unstable Dan. We are lead to believe, or what I understand, that the San Andreas fault is the one to watch!`
Andy
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I visited Mt St Helens in around 1998 and it was still just devastated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP2dreOI8gI
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When not cycling, I do a lot of other outdoors stuff, including underground exploration. Sometimes, I get lucky and ride to where I can "go under" and occasionally also camp underground with the Nomad, usually in rock caves but sometimes in ice caves and ice tubes (cool in summer when high-desert ground temps above are very hot) or in rifts.
I would not want to be here (see photo below) -- in the middle of a graben volcanic fissure -- if things go Bad. I took this photo of my sister as we were 7 stories below ground in the midst of the 3km rift. Geologists have figured the thing may have popped open in a matter of a few seconds...and could snap shut about as quickly if the earth shifts during a quake. Pioneers in the area found winter snowdrift remained on the bottom through August, allowing them to enjoy ice cream on hot summer days.
The Hell Hole geologic feature is also located not too far from me. It has been scrubbed from Forest Service maps since 1933, but...I have a map predating that as well as the GPS coordinates. I have cycled to the landing a number of times but do not intend descending, as there is regular rockfall from the unstable rim and the rocks are the size of buses and a bike helmet would not likely help much. For a glimpse, see: http://www.opb.org/television/programs/ofg/segment/hell-hole/
Best,
Dan.
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Ah jeez, just 'cos one has an apocalyptic imagination doesn't mean the end of the world is not at hand...
Any tourists eyeing the trip along 101 should do do it quick I reckon. Saw a recent article on the unnerving extent of BC's lack of preparedness for any kind of tsunami following an offshore 'quake: that is, no preparedness at all. Instead, the feds are trying to ensure that monster oil-shipping terminals are built along the northern BC coast. Seems that huge tsunamis hit that coast about once every 500 years, and the last one was early in the 18th century, so the arithmetic is not encouraging. (Though the early 18th century predates European settlement, and as everyone knows Nothing Important Happened back then.) We are told that the "mitigating" consideration, if that's the word I want, is that these tidal waves are usually"only" about 5 - 10M high, as a rule, nothing like the monsters which devastated Japan.
A while back, our son was talking about studying/working in California; we suggested that he pls do so east of the Fault. So he's on Australia's east coast, where the rise in sea levels will at least likely be drawn-out, depending of course on the trans-Pacific effects of The Big One on the Left Coast of North America.
I'd steer clear of caves if I were you, Dan. During our time in South Africa, we visited the Cradle of Humankind site NW of Jo'burg, and the underground cave systems there are both magnificent and terrifying. You can do a 14-km underground hike, swim in rivers and lakes and such. Best to do the guided tour however -- unfortunately, now & then people persist in trying to do it alone, and wind up dying alone. Me, I thought that the whole business was weird and unnatural, and a 10-minute well-lighted trek was just fine, thank you very much, to see how our ancestors took shelter, back in the day. Reckon I'd take my chances out on the savannah. (Mind you, pre-sunscreen days, us members of The Spotted Tribe would last maybe a season or two before becoming toast.)
Scaring myself half to death, cheerfully, J.
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Right on all counts, John.
We keep getting slides on 101 near the Sea Lion Caves at Heceta Head. Stops traffic for days, and then it only resumes behind a pilot car. I cannot imagine what would happen in the event of a tsunami. With every water and electric bill from City of Yachats, they include a map of the Tsunami Evacuation Route across the highway and up Horizon Hill behind our place. I...don't think there'd be more than mere moments to get there after the siren sounded at the fire station behind our place.I'd steer clear of caves if I were you, Dan.
Good advice I really should heed. I go alone, so if Something happened, about all I'd have going for me is avoidance of burial costs. :P
All the best,
Dan. (...who's tryna be careful Out There and doesn't ever want to be That Guy you read about in the newspapers)
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What an exciting life you lead, Dan!
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Smilin' through the apocalypse... Years back, Tom Paxton did a great song about the US Postal Service, after receiving a notice in the mail about service in the event of nuclear war. Title of the song was, "They're Gonna Drop the Big One But the Mail Will Go Through".
A real-life anecdote that in retrospect seems almost quaint: in the mid-70's, in the early years of the bush war between ZANU-PF and the (then) Rhodesian security forces, a headmaster of a rural school in the southeast part of the country sent a message to his students' parents, noting that with the increase in violence in the rural areas, parents should please use registered mail to send their school fees, rather than sending the fees with the students, which was the usual practice. Registered mail probably used bicycles for at least part of the journey (he said, preserving at least a tenuous link to the subject-matter of the forum.)
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Hi All!
Yikes! A whole lotta shakin' is going on in my preferred bicycle touring playground, Oregon/Nevada/California's portion of the Great Basin: http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/01/8_earthquakes_in_24_hours_ratt.html
Oregon and the Cascades mountain range are seismically active places, as is the Cascadia subduction zone ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone ) offshore, which always offers the threat of a major tsunami.
Yes, I may own beachfront property sooner than expected. :o ...or will be using my tent on a more permanent basis. :D
Best,
Dan.
Ah, the joys of living on a plate margin! You get the exciting geology and beautiful mountains but also the risk. I always thought the Juan de Fuca plate was well named.... Chaos theory might predict that someone cycling furiously away from the coast with your cadence could very likely lead to a tsunami.... or not!
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If the big enough one comes?
Hope it don't, but what 3 things would you grab as you ran out the front door, Dan?
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what 3 things would you grab as you ran out the front door, Dan?
Arrgh! This would be a tough one, Matt, 'cos it comes down to a choice between the practical and the emotional/sentimental, assuming I could first get myself and any loved ones present safely out ourselves.
Hmm.
Practically, there would be hugely damaged infrastructure, so the smart thing to grab would be several of my lockers full of camping gear, as I would immediately have warm, dry shelter and a means to cook food and some spare clothes, though of course I would look like a cyclist (no bad thing...especially if I also managed to grab the rain gear). The phone and solar chargers would be in the lot as well, so I would be able to manage reasonably well for an extended period without electricity (and could still Admin this Forum so you'd hear all about it). Water purifier is in there also, and renewable lighting. I'd probably start raiding the freezer in the garage first, as it would be subject to the warming countdown clock first, then go for the canned food in the pantry, sharing it with my avid hunter and fisherman neighbor across the street (it pays to choose friends carefully at times of Natural Disaster!). Realistically, the neighborhood is empty on weekdays, as I am one of the few working from home.
The water and electric bill from Yachats (the little village of 650 people on the coast where my family has owned a tiny vacation cabin since 1968) reminds me monthly of the need for a similar "evac" kit to grab and go with "when" the tsunami hits and we're all scrambling up Horizon Hill just inland from the Coast Highway. What a mess that would be with single-lane dead-end streets blocking the way and no room for the cars that would quickly block access. Grabbing the gear lockers here at home in the Willamette Valley is the same response. It would be smart to also take the 5.2m/17ft aluminum canoe stored in the garage rafters and the outboard from the storage cupboard, as the dams would likely be breached and Danneaux the non-swimmer would be going <glub-glub> without it. In winter, the nordic ski gear might be handy. All in all, a considerate disaster would wait until the warmer months to strike.
Emotionally...
Well, that's much tougher. The Nomad, if I possibly could, and the favorite rando bike...but that leaves the other bikes including the tandem trapped inside. :o The car would likely be useless, with buckled roads awaiting if it could make it out of the splintered garage. All the petrol pumps depend on electricity to operate and I would imagine the underground tanks would be breached anyway.
The computers, as those would mean continued work and have my records on them.
Family photo albums (anybody remember those from the Pre-Digital age) and genealogy.
Really, I'd be lucky to escape a collapsing house and the Water to follow, if it came to that. You can find me floating on the remains of the roof. :-\
John is right, though...there just aren't the resources to address such a coming problem. If a large natural disaster strikes the northwest US, it is likely to remain a disaster for a very, very long time and the bulk of the people would have to fend for themselves for awhile.
So, Matt, I'd grab these three...
1) Myself and any family at the time and be grateful to get Out with our lives.
For material things...
2) Camping gear as Emergency Gear so I could hunker down with the basics for awhile.
3) Comms (smartphone) to ask for/direct help my way and to help others, sharing what I had for as long as it lasted (else it would go to waste).
4) Probably a bike for transport and I can't think of better for the task than the Nomad.
Time to re-read my collection of John Christopher novels. His characters always did well in such events. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Christopher
Best,
Dan. (...who would rather be elsewhere when "it" happens)
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Thanks Dan.
Very revealing and practical.
Me?
Family first but then I go the sentimental way.
Family pictures etc.
Practical items third, I know that's crazy.
Food, clothing, survival gear.
There are earthquakes in Scotland and other parts of UK but very few and far between.
Rarely mentioned on the news and then it is along the lines of, " first one of this magnitude in 30 years".
Matt
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Family first but then I go the sentimental way.
Family pictures etc.
Practical items third, I know that's crazy.
Not crazy at all, Matt; just speaks to a good heart.
All the best,
Dan. (...who won't have any photos to remember :'( ...but will still eat :D )
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During my trip last May and June from Astoria OR to San Fransisco CA along the Pacific Coast I saw where some homes had been built on land that ... ... well it was not land any more. It is a bit hard to see in the photo, but there are parts of buildings along the shore. This photo is looking south.
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And this photo is from the other side looking north. You can see some pavement with some steel cables close to the camera on the left. Not sure if that was part of a building or a driveway or what. Further from the camera you can see a fence, presumably along a property line. And a realtor sign along the road where someone is trying to sell the tiny little bit of their lot that has not slide into the ocean yet.
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During my trip last May and June from Astoria OR to San Fransisco CA along the Pacific Coast I saw where some homes had been built on land that ... ... well it was not land any more.
<nods> Yes, Mickeg, bit by bit it is all going into the sea. There is a *lot* of erosion along the coastline, aggravated by winter storms and winds that carve away at the banks. Far better to be back just a ways...oceanfront property will come to you!
Lovely photos, by the way.
Best,
Dan.
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Egads! This apocalyptic thread has elicited the strongest response in yonks!
Dan ( and all), my sage (and professional) advice is - don't worry, but be prepared. Disasters ( any of several potential) can strike at any time, to any of us. Assess the risk to you and yours, of whatever it is that threatens you. Here in my area, it's the (admittedly low) potential for tsunami if the Shakey Isles (aka New Zealand) happen to start to shake, rattle and roll. Having said that, Newcastle in 1989 experienced one of Australia's very few deadly earthquakes (7 souls).
Dan's beloved Pacific Northwest is considerably higher risk. Earthquake, tsunami and super-volcanoes - oi vey!
But... It's a lovely spot, so why worry? Just pack a bag with your three things (Dan, I think the phone and laptop may be completely surplus to requirements if he big one hits ???), and IMPLEMENT YOUR PLAN. The key is the PLAN. That's what gets drummed into us every bushfire season.
I'm also mindful of what an old surveyor told me in Wyoming when discussions of the apocalypse came up. He'd say "The Mormons collect grain, sugar and other supplies against the day the apocalypse arrives. Me? I collect guns. When the day comes, I'll know where to get the supplies!" ;D (I think this was only partly in jest ;).)
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Dan ( and all), my sage (and professional) advice is - don't worry, but be prepared.
Exactly!
Really, I don't worry about it much. A more immediate concern is making it safely through a couple busy intersections when I want to cycle north of my home!
I spent a year living in northern Mississippi 24 years ago. I remember lightning storms that broke my bathroom window and split a tree as I walked past, and the tornado reports on television with little graphics showing which direction they were headed and how far till they found cities. I figured then you can't wait for things to happen. You make your little kit in readiness and keep it fresh, you know what to watch for and do, and then you enjoy life!
Pretty much what I do when touring solo -- I prepare carefully, then use common sense for enjoyment. ;)
All the best,
Dan. (...who remembers Jimmy Buffet wrote "Come Monday" *before* he wrote the "Volcano" song... :D )
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Preparedness, brains in the event, and...
...good luck, Dan!
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Listen to Rolling Stones! ;D
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;D ;D ;D
...Or Elvis: "All Shook Up".
All the best,
Dan.
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While it looks like the Big One is overdue...
http://www.kgw.com/story/news/local/2015/01/26/oregon-overdue-for-earthquake-315-years-after-last-90-event/22366463/
...Not everyone is concerned about it and some are willing to play the odds by putting Real Money on a low probability of occurrence. Case in point: The state's agriculture and engineering university has chosen to deliberately site a UD$50 million Marine Studies Center in a known tsunami zone. It will house as many as 525 students and faculty, and evacuation warning time to tsunami is estimated at ~15-30 minutes:
http://www.lincolncountydispatch.com/index.php/news/item/3990-newport-says-osu-cleared-to-build-hmsc-expansion-in-south-beach-tsunami-zone/3990-newport-says-osu-cleared-to-build-hmsc-expansion-in-south-beach-tsunami-zone
http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2014/12/state_geologist_warns_against.html
http://www.columbian.com/news/2014/dec/26/osu-urged-not-to-put-building-in-tsunami-zone/
Best,
Dan. (...who is putting his money on a tent and a Thorn bicycle, if given the choice)