Author Topic: It occurred to me....  (Read 582 times)

Matt2matt2002

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It occurred to me....
« on: April 08, 2020, 10:57:16 PM »
On my ride today, ( close to home and avoiding close contact etc. ) I passed a couple cycling towards me.
We were using a dedicated cycling path on a disused railway line.
No strong wind, mild ( for Scotlandshire ) and sunny.
We both slowed and kept well to our side of the track. All 3 of us were wearing face coverings/ bandanas.

I was surprised to notice the ladies perfume and the gents aftershave for quite a distance after we crossed paths.

Given the present virus situation, what are the risks of such encounter?
Is the virus as small as the ' scent' ?
Never drink and drive. You may hit a bump  and spill your drink

Mike Ayling

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2020, 11:33:06 PM »
Matt

I have read simllar comments on other forums.

That is why I am avoiding shared paths atm and riding on quiet residential streets.
here in Oz most homes have off street parking and there are very few parked cars in the residential streets.

Mike

Danneaux

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2020, 12:11:19 AM »
Here (Oregon USA), all beaches, parks, day-use areas, etc are closed out of concern for person-to-person outdoors transmission of the Corona virus that causes Covid-19. Indoors transmission has been proven to occur at the previous "safe" separation of 2m.

Cycling is allowed but discouraged because it is perceived as more dangerous than walking and therefore more likely to place additional load on emergency services, A&E and medical staff.

People in Oregon have generally been good about practicing social distancing -- as proven by lower rates of infection and fewer deaths -- but last week I gave up walking on the bike path without wearing a mask, as both cyclists and other walkers tended to fan out across the path and some came uncomfortably close, actually brushing my elbow as I trudged along in the grass right next to the pavement.

This link...
https://vimeo.com/402577241
...gives a good illustration how far cough, sneeze droplets, even breath can travel.

For the immediate future, I'll be wearing my personal protective equipment outdoors. From what we're told here, it provides even greater protection for others, and since some "carriers" are asymptomatic and may not know they are sick, it seems a good idea to err on the side of caution for the sake of others as well as myself.

Best,

Dan.

Danneaux

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2020, 12:28:31 AM »
Putting things in concrete terms, the smell receptors in our noses are less than 10nm (nanometers) across and depending on structure odor molecules are about 1-3nm. See: https://www.nanooze.org/the-sense-of-smell/

Viruses are larger, roughly 17-1,000nm in size. See:
http://book.bionumbers.org/how-big-are-viruses/

Best,

Dan.

Matt2matt2002

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Never drink and drive. You may hit a bump  and spill your drink

mickeg

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2020, 05:32:36 PM »
Everybody has to make their own decisions.

I am continuing to bike on bike trails, I do that solo.  But there are friends of mine that have gotten off of the bike trails and instead ride on roads now.  Some of the bike trails near or in my community are starting to get a lot of hikers now because they are not at work, some of the more crowded trails I am avoiding but some have very few people on them.

I am aware that there are asymptomatic people out there that are contagious, most people that get the virus do not show symptoms for a few days and they may be contagious during that time.  But it is my understanding that most people that have any of the symptoms would be unable to ride a bike.

There almost always is some wind where i live, rarely less than 5 mph (~~2 meters/sec).  And that wind almost always is not directly in line with the trail, there is some side wind, and I am assuming that the air most people exhale will be off of the trail within seconds.

Note that I am not directly following anyone on the trail, I am riding solo and msot of the time I cannot see another person within 100 meters.

In my area the govt restrictions allow outside exercise, hiking, walking, running, cycling, etc.

I am not encouraging anyone to be careless, I am just saying you have to weigh the risks.  And I recognize that I am taking some risk.  I used to work on hazardous waste cleanups, have been through all the training for that, so I am comfortable with my assessment. 

I have been in a building with others for about five minutes two days ago to vote in an election.  Before that the last time I was in a building with people was a grocery store about nine days ago for about 25 minutes.  And the time before that was 12 days earlier.  My point is that I am avoiding risk as much as practical.  I think I get more exposure in one minute in a grocery store where others are present than I get during an entire bike ride.   I live alone so I do not have to worry about another in my home giving the virus to me.

Good luck, be safe, and take care.

Andre Jute

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2020, 06:27:23 PM »
Here in Ireland the government's earnest advice is for the over-70s to "cocoon", which means not to go out at all, and to practice social distancing even in the home. I didn't actually read down that far but my wife did and pointed out that I was mad to go cycling, even on lonely country trails because I would still have to cycle through a bit of the town to get there. It is notable that the Swedish authorities, which hasn't shut down its society(1), all the same advises the over-70s to stay in. With the over-70s are also classed anyone of any age with a compromised immune system which includes anyone who's recovered from cancer. Since last week we're having foodstuffs and medications delivered to the door. Stay safe!

(1) The Swedes are working on the theory that young people will build up immunity faster if they are not locked down, and then their immunity will prevent them providing a conduit, thereby protecting those vulnerable. The lockdown theory hasn't been proven yet, and it is notable how many of the "coronavirus fatalities" actually have other underlying causes from which they could have died at any time... In the absence of other explanations, the Swedes seem to be statistically ahead of the curve. Here's an interesting article by an American epidemiologist who's worked with the Swedes for years: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

mickeg

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2020, 06:52:30 PM »
...
(1) The Swedes are working on the theory that young people will build up immunity faster if they are not locked down, and then their immunity will prevent them providing a conduit, thereby protecting those vulnerable. The lockdown theory hasn't been proven yet, and it is notable how many of the "coronavirus fatalities" actually have other underlying causes from which they could have died at any time... In the absence of other explanations, the Swedes seem to be statistically ahead of the curve. Here's an interesting article by an American epidemiologist who's worked with the Swedes for years: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

I do not look at news articles from highly partisan sources, and National Review is on that list.

My source for what I consider is highly partisan is from this graph.
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/pauldouglas_1586298069_media%20bias%20chart.JPG

I get most of my news from Bloomberg, NYTimes, NPR, PBS, and FT.  And watch ABC news on tv.  Those media sources are rated as some of the most reliable on that chart and are pretty close to dead center on the partisan scale.

FT had some good pieces on a study from Imperial College back in mid-March that assessed herd immunity against a more aggressive approach.  And looks like Sweden is the only advanced economy that I have heard is pursuing a herd immunity approach.

But thanks anyway.

leftpoole

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2020, 06:27:17 PM »

I do not look at news articles from highly partisan sources, and National Review is on that list.



Interesting?

Pavel

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2020, 01:12:42 AM »
...
(1) The Swedes are working on the theory that young people will build up immunity faster if they are not locked down, and then their immunity will prevent them providing a conduit, thereby protecting those vulnerable. The lockdown theory hasn't been proven yet, and it is notable how many of the "coronavirus fatalities" actually have other underlying causes from which they could have died at any time... In the absence of other explanations, the Swedes seem to be statistically ahead of the curve. Here's an interesting article by an American epidemiologist who's worked with the Swedes for years: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

I do not look at news articles from highly partisan sources, and National Review is on that list.

My source for what I consider is highly partisan is from this graph.
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/pauldouglas_1586298069_media%20bias%20chart.JPG

I get most of my news from Bloomberg, NYTimes, NPR, PBS, and FT.  And watch ABC news on tv.  Those media sources are rated as some of the most reliable on that chart and are pretty close to dead center on the partisan scale.

FT had some good pieces on a study from Imperial College back in mid-March that assessed herd immunity against a more aggressive approach.  And looks like Sweden is the only advanced economy that I have heard is pursuing a herd immunity approach.

But thanks anyway.

NYTImes, Bloomberg and NPR?  You have to be kidding.  That's like saying that Pravda is good reporting.  What a joke.

Andre Jute

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2020, 05:57:21 AM »
I must admit, I too thought George made an excellent joke, and laughed heartily.

mickeg

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2020, 04:36:38 PM »
Was not a joke.

But I am not going to try to explain the differences between real journalism and partisan opinion pieces masquerading as factual content.

I will not reply to any more on this topic.

Pavel

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Re: It occurred to me....
« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2020, 11:46:05 PM »
Brazil is using the herding theory that Sweden is subscribing to.  Too early to tell which way is more effective.

I think of this virus as the pension plan savings program, through I admit that my sense of humor is suspect. I subscribe to the idea that every dark cloud has at least a small silver lining, and versa vice.